Understanding what expected value is essential to poker. Expected value pertains to the average result in a game if you play it hundreds or thousands of times. We can easily understand it if we apply it to daily lives, such as basketball.
Basketball: The Stephen Curry Bet
There is betting in basketball, like how you do at ceme online. For example, you went into the practice facility of the Golden State Warriors. Then, you interrupted the free throw session of Stephen Curry. He didn’t want you to remove at the facility by calling the security. But he bets $5 for his next shot.
You know that Stephen Curry is a great player and so you hesitate with the proposal. You know that Stephen Curry is an amazing free throw shooter. Now, he is getting impatient saying that it’s only five bucks.
At first, you will decide to decline the proposal and it will be best if you do so. Your $5 versus Stephen’s $5, the bet is now called as a negative expected value (EV).
Indeed, there are two possible outcomes with the given situation. First, Stephen Curry will make the free throw and you will now lose $5. This outcome can happen at 90.1% during the game. Second, Stephen will make the free throw, miss it, and you win $5. Meanwhile, this probability can happen at 9.9% during the entire game.
With the likelihoods and the outcomes, you will tell yourself that this is a losing bet for you. But, how much can you lose?
To know the expected value of this bet, multiply each’s bet probability by the respective value. Then, add them all. If you put the bet 100 times, you will expect to lose $4 for each shot.
But now, Stephen offered you $100 for your $5 bet. With the bet he offered, you will now have the positive expected value. However, even if you have a positive expected value, it doesn’t mean that you will always win the game. Thus, it is only by making more bets that you will realize your expected value.
Applying the Expected Value in Poker
At the poker table, you can easily determine how expected value can work. Imagine how many times you have pocket aces as you go all-in preflop. Would you consider folding the aces hidden, setting aside exceptional cases?
Of course, you will not consider it. You understand that getting your money in before the flop with the pocket aces is a profitable game for you.
Indeed, to be a successful poker gamer at ceme online, you have to consistently make profitable expected value plays. Sometimes, it is difficult to identify it versus the rest. You have to place more volume so you can deal with the negative variance which is inevitable in the game.
Indeed, the expected value is not always guaranteed. It is common to go on extended cold streaks and experience below what the expected value would dictate. Poker is a game of skill, but there is still the element of luck that you cannot avoid. To mitigate this, make the expected value play as often as possible and put more serious volume in it.