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Mickey: Tropical rain on the horizon
September 21 2017, 02:19 | Irvin Gilbert
Invest 92L Could Develop Into a Tropical or Subtropical Cyclone Near Southeast Coast By This Weekend; Heavy Rain
Because this system is moving into a favorable environment for re-strengthening, Harvey could form back into a Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane by this upcoming weekend, and churn its way up towards Texas. According to the National Hurricane Center, Harvey is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the west-central Caribbean Sea. NHC noted "Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning, August 25". An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the low this morning.
On one of the last weekends of the summer, it will feel more fall-like, but at least both weekend days are filled with sunshine and highs into the 70s.
But they say the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with that broad trough of low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. The system is poised to bring a heavy rain threat to southeastern parts of Texas.
If, however, the cold front stalls near or north of our area, Harvey may move closer to Central Texas and potentially provide anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of rain through early next week.
While this forecast is still expected to need some changes - as typical with tropical systems.especially non-defined ones - the consistency in placement and timing of this system has been impressive thus far. Based on this forecast, we would see rain starting Saturday in east Texas and north Louisiana.
If the system holds together... it could strengthen a little over the next 24 to 48 hours as it tracks toward the west/northwest.