wnol.info May 20 2018

How likely is the General Election to result in a hung parliament?

May 20 2018, 05:25 | Irvin Gilbert

How likely is the General Election to result in a hung parliament?

Tanya Joseph

A YouGov model based on different data estimated May's Conservatives would win 317 seats, nine short of an overall majority of 326 seats.

Jeremy Corbyn will be off to Essex to discuss how he would tackle the Brexit negotiations which are reportedly due to start 11 days after the election, while Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron will be in London with party colleague Nick Clegg discussing the impact of Britain's exit from the European Union before heading for a grilling with Andrew Neil on the BBC.

The Times newspaper has traditionally supported the Conservative Party.

As the United Kingdom trundles towards its snap General Election on June 8th, the latest opinion polls suggest that it could result in a hung parliament.

YouGov, the polling company, has produced an "election model" which it says is not a prediction, which suggests that the Conservatives are now likely to lose 21 seats, which would deprive Theresa May of her majority and mean that she would need the support of the Ulster unionists and the Liberal Democrats to stay in government.

Such a result would cause a "hung parliament" with no party having overall control and throw Britain back into the era of coalition government.

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But polls had shown May's rating slipping over the past month and they fell sharply after she set out plans on May 18 to make some elderly people pay a greater share of their care costs, a proposal dubbed the "dementia tax" by opponents.

During a visit to Plymouth Fisheries, where she met local fishermen, Mrs May said: "The only poll that matters is the one that's going to take place on June 8 and then people will have a choice as to who they want to see as leader, who they want to see as prime minister taking this country forward in the future, me or Jeremy Corbyn".

YouGov updates its model forecast daily, and said it conducted 6,858 interviews with potential voters on May 31, and a total 53,611 over the past week.

What is the state of play according to other polling companies?

"Once the Conservative lead falls below 7 points we are potentially in the world of a hung parliament", said John Curtice, a leading psephologist who is president of the British Polling Council. The Electoral Calculus website, which predicts the results based on polls and electoral geography, said May would win 371 seats and Labour 205 seats.

Yougov defended their poll, with Stephan Shakespeare of the company saying their model was tested in advance of last year's Brexit referendum and that they always had Leave ahead.

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